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The S&P 500 Has Become One Big Bet. It’s Only Getting Bigger.

The index's top ten stocks make up nearly 40% of its total value as of Q226. All have some connection to AI.

Now SpaceX is filing its IPO. Priced at 92x sales. Lost $5 billion last year. 

Robert Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, called it "ludicrous" in the WSJ this month but said he'd gladly buy SpaceX anyway. His reason? Index funds have to buy it to avoid trailing the benchmark.

It’s becoming a very crowded boat, and moreso with Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs around the corner.

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Key Takeaways

  • Successful long-term investing generally comes down to a few key principles:

    • Keep investment costs low.

    • Maintain broad global diversification.

    • Invest consistently through regular contributions.

    • Stay invested and follow a disciplined buy-and-hold strategy inside your TFSA or RRSP.

Hi Compounders,

Happy Canada Day!

Aggressive Growth TFSA Model (Core + Satellite)

Target: Maximum long-term growth with a 10+ year investment horizon and high risk tolerance.

Structure: 80–85% core global equity exposure with a 15–20% satellite allocation for additional growth and income.

Portfolio Allocation

60% – XEQT (iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio)

  • Global diversification across Canada, the U.S., developed, and emerging markets in a single ETF.

  • Serves as the foundation of the portfolio and primary long-term growth engine.

  • Provides exposure to thousands of companies worldwide while keeping costs low.

20% – VFV (Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF)

  • Tracks the S&P 500, providing concentrated exposure to leading U.S. companies.

  • Adds a larger U.S. growth tilt beyond the allocation already included in XEQT.

  • In a TFSA, all capital gains and dividends remain tax-free, making it an efficient long-term holding.

10% – VDY (Vanguard FTSE Canadian High Dividend Yield Index ETF)

  • Invests in Canada's established dividend-paying companies, including banks, pipelines, utilities, and telecommunications.

  • Adds a steady stream of tax-free dividend income within a TFSA while providing exposure to mature, financially strong businesses.

  • Helps reduce overall portfolio volatility without sacrificing long-term growth potential.

  • Serves as a stabilizing component alongside the higher-growth global equity holdings.

10% – Satellite Bucket (Your Choice)

This allocation is reserved for higher-growth opportunities based on your investment conviction.

Options include:

  • High-growth individual companies (AI, cloud computing, semiconductors, technology leaders, etc.).

  • Thematic ETFs focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, cybersecurity, or clean energy.

Purpose: Increase long-term upside while limiting overall portfolio risk by keeping speculative investments to a relatively small allocation.

Simpler 3-ETF Version

If you prefer an even simpler portfolio:

  • 65% XEQT

  • 25% VFV

  • 10% VDY

This provides broad global diversification, increased U.S. growth exposure, and dependable Canadian dividend income in just three ETFs.

Why This Is an Aggressive TFSA Portfolio

  • 100% invested in equities with no bond allocation, maximizing long-term growth potential while accepting higher short-term volatility.

  • Heavy U.S. exposure through VFV complements XEQT and increases participation in one of the world's strongest long-term equity markets.

  • VDY provides stability and tax-free dividend income, helping balance the portfolio without significantly reducing growth potential.

  • The satellite allocation offers additional upside through carefully selected high-growth investments.

  • TFSA advantage: All capital gains, dividends, and future growth remain completely tax-free.

Execution Checklist

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Automate Contributions

Set up automatic monthly deposits into your TFSA and purchase the ETFs on a consistent schedule.

Rebalance Annually

Review your allocation once a year. If any holding drifts by more than 5% from its target weight, rebalance back to your original allocation.

Keep Costs Low

Use a low-cost brokerage such as Wealthsimple Trade or Questrade to minimize trading expenses.

Stay Disciplined

Aggressive portfolios experience significant market swings. If your investment horizon is 10 years or longer, remain invested during downturns and avoid panic selling.

Three Core ETFs for a Long-Term TFSA/RRSP Portfolio

For investors seeking a simple, long-term portfolio on the TSX, three highly regarded ETFs are:

  • XEQT – iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio

  • VFV – Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF

  • VDY – Vanguard FTSE Canadian High Dividend Yield Index ETF

These ETFs are well suited for a buy-and-hold strategy inside a TFSA or RRSP.

Why These Three?

1. XEQT – One-Ticker Global Equity Foundation

What it is:
An all-in-one equity ETF holding approximately 9,000 stocks across Canada, the U.S., developed markets, and emerging markets.

Why for TFSA/RRSP:
Provides instant global diversification with a low MER of approximately 0.20%, making it an ideal core holding.

Role: The foundation and primary growth engine of the portfolio.

2. VFV – S&P 500 Exposure

What it is:
Tracks the S&P 500 while trading in Canadian dollars.

Why for TFSA/RRSP:

  • Increases exposure to large U.S. companies.

  • Historically offers stronger long-term growth than the Canadian market alone.

  • Low MER of approximately 0.09%.

Role: Enhances long-term growth through greater U.S. market exposure.

3. VDY – Canadian Dividend Foundation

What it is:
An ETF focused on Canada's high-quality dividend-paying companies across sectors such as financials, energy infrastructure, utilities, and telecommunications.

Why for TFSA/RRSP:

  • Generates a reliable stream of tax-free dividends in a TFSA.

  • Adds stability and defensive characteristics during market volatility.

  • Low MER of approximately 0.22%.

Role: Provides income, stability, and exposure to Canada's strongest dividend-paying businesses.

Suggested Long-Term Allocation

  • 70–80% XEQT — Global diversified equity foundation

  • 15–20% VFV — Additional U.S. large-cap growth exposure

  • 10–15% VDY — Canadian dividend income and portfolio stability

Adjust these allocations based on your risk tolerance, investment objectives, and preference for simplicity.

Important Notes

These allocations are examples rather than personalized investment advice. Your ideal portfolio should reflect your investment horizon, risk tolerance, and overall financial plan.

Read more of our previous issues here

Until next week, keep compounding …

Capital Compounder

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Investing in securities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal; always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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