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The AI trade has suffered a significant reassessment, but the underlying AI investment cycle has not collapsed.

This was one of the most important weeks for technology investors in 2026. The Democratic midterm victory intensified concerns about the future of data-centre construction, while earnings expectations, expensive valuations and interest-rate concerns added pressure.

The week ended with a recovery in semiconductor shares, but the Nasdaq-100 remained almost 5% lower for the week.

Nasdaq-100

26,989.99 close

Nasdaq Composite

24,579.43 close

S&P 500

7,376.86 close

Dow Jones

51,285.73 close

The Nasdaq-100 lost approximately 1,395 points during the week, despite Friday's recovery.

Nasdaq-100: November 2–6

Daily closing index levels, points. Source: historical market data.

26,40026,95027,50028,05028,600Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6

The key event was Thursday's collapse.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%, its largest daily decline in 19 months. The semiconductor index lost more than 12%.

Friday then brought a partial recovery, led by semiconductor companies.

Market interpretation: This is still a correction, not a confirmed new bull-market phase. The rebound needs to be supported by improving market breadth, earnings guidance and lower volatility.

The striking feature of this correction is that the biggest losses were concentrated in AI infrastructure, memory chips, optical networking and semiconductor equipment.

The following figures are weekly moves from October 30 to November 6, not just Thursday's losses.

Selected S&P 500 technology and AI-infrastructure stocks

Source: weekly closing-price analysis, November 6. Figures are rounded.

Weekly declines in AI and technology stocks

Percentage price changes, October 30–November 6. Negative returns.

-36%-27%-18%-9%0%LITESTXMRVLWDCSNDKTSLAAVGONVDA

One important company-specific development: Marvell announced an all-stock acquisition of Lumentum on November 2, with an implied enterprise value of $115 billion. The deal adds a separate transaction and valuation dimension to those share-price movements.

AppLovin was a particularly interesting exception. Its third-quarter revenue increased 55% to $2.185 billion, while net income rose 72% to $1.439 billion. Its performance demonstrates that investors are still prepared to reward companies delivering substantial earnings growth.

This is the most important fundamental issue.

The sell-off cannot be explained by politics alone. There is a growing debate about whether the financial returns from AI justify the enormous infrastructure expenditure.

AMD (AMD)

Strong operating results

AMD reported on November 3:

Management also indicated accelerating fourth-quarter revenue and earnings growth.

This is a strong business performance. Yet AMD plunged approximately 17% on Thursday before recovering around 11% on Friday.

Interpretation: The market is worried about valuation and the future spending environment, rather than simply rejecting AMD's latest results.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Earnings pressure

Qualcomm fell approximately 9% following its disappointing outlook for smartphone chip sales.

The handset market remains sensitive to consumer demand, component costs and competition. This is an important reminder that not every semiconductor company benefits equally from AI.

AppLovin (APP)

Major earnings beat

This is an example of a technology company delivering strong financial returns rather than relying solely on the promise of future AI infrastructure demand.

Reuters has highlighted the failure of Alphabet and Meta's previous earnings commentary to fully reassure investors about the returns on AI investment.

The concern is increasingly about free cash flow, not just revenue growth.

What I would watch: Quarterly capital expenditure, depreciation, operating cash flow, cloud backlog and the proportion of AI spending generating incremental revenue.

Important structural risk

The midterm election outcome is now a significant factor in the AI investment outlook.

The Associated Press reported that Democrats made major gains in Congress and state governments. Among 34 gubernatorial winners tracked by Data Center Watch, 32 supported stronger regulation or restrictions on data centres, while 12 supported bans or moratoriums.

However, we must distinguish political promises from actual legislation.

There is already an important precedent: California enacted a package of data-centre-related laws in September covering energy, water and infrastructure-cost transparency. Other states have also introduced restrictions and permitting pauses.

Consider the potential consequences:

That is the transmission mechanism connecting regulation to stock valuations.

My assessment: The election has accelerated uncertainty, but the current evidence does not justify concluding that the US government will halt AI development.

Also, the new Congress will not take office until January 2027. Much of the immediate regulatory exposure comes from state and local developments rather than newly enacted federal legislation.

This is an especially important development because the latest employment figures were stronger than expected.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported:

The payroll result exceeded the roughly 65,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. August and September employment figures were also revised upward.

Why is this important?

A stronger economy is generally positive for corporate earnings. However, it can also reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28.

Following the employment report, markets increased their expectations of another rate increase in December. Estimates reported by Reuters varied around 75%–80%, depending on the time of measurement.

For technology investors, this matters because future earnings are discounted at higher rates when bond yields rise.

The interest-rate transmission mechanism

Strong employment and persistent inflation

Higher expected Federal Reserve interest rates

Higher borrowing costs and discount rates

Pressure on high-valuation growth stocks

The September PCE inflation index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, increased 3.6% year over year. Core PCE increased 3.1%.

That is still materially above the Fed's 2% target.

This is where I would be particularly cautious.

The VIX closed at approximately 24.88 on November 6, after reaching 28.18 on Thursday.

A VIX near 25 is not necessarily a financial crisis signal, but it indicates that investors are paying more for protection against market volatility.

Friday's rebound was also narrower than the headline index recovery suggests. Only 185 of the S&P 500's 502 constituents advanced on Friday, according to one market closing analysis.

1. The correction is significant.

The Nasdaq-100 reached a record 31,361.37 on October 6 and finished November 6 at 26,989.99.

−13.95% from the record

That places the index firmly in correction territory

2. The rebound has not recovered the damage.

The index gained 360 points on Friday after losing more than 1,800 points on Thursday.

3. Semiconductor leadership needs confirmation.

If Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and memory stocks recover together over several sessions, it would strengthen the recovery case.

If only a few heavily traded shares recover, the rebound could prove temporary.

These are my qualitative scenarios, not statistical price targets.

Bullish scenario

Recovery

Expected outcome: Technology stocks recover, led by established AI platforms and profitable semiconductor companies.

Base scenario

Volatile consolidation

Expected outcome: A choppy market, with substantial differences between individual company performances.

Bearish scenario

Further correction

Expected outcome: Further pressure on expensive AI infrastructure stocks and leveraged data-centre developers.

These are the most important checkpoints for the next few weeks.

The November 25 PCE and December 4 employment dates are confirmed in the official release calendars.

These are companies I would monitor for fundamental recovery, not automatic buy recommendations.

NVIDIA Shows Blackwell Slashing AI Inference Costs By 10X With Open Models | HotHardware

1. Nvidia (NVDA)

The most important indicator of AI infrastructure demand. Watch guidance, margins and customer spending.

AMD's fastest AI chips could get a memory boost as competition with Nvidia intensifies — Instinct MI300 will soon come with new memory configurations | Tom's Hardware

2. AMD (AMD)

Strong data-centre growth, with potential to gain share in AI computing.

Microsoft Unveils Its First Custom-Designed AI, Cloud Chips - Bloomberg

3. Microsoft (MSFT)

Cash generation, cloud growth and enterprise AI adoption.

Amazon Web Services International Admissions – Global Admissions

4. Amazon (AMZN)

AWS growth and whether AI capital expenditure is translating into operating profits.

Broadcom unveils Jericho 4 and HyperPort for AI networking | Timothy Prickett Morgan posted on the topic | LinkedIn

5. Broadcom (AVGO)

AI networking and custom silicon exposure.

Arista 7060X6, 32x800GbE OSFP Switch, Front-to-rear Air, 2xAC - DCS-7060X6-32PE-F

6. Arista Networks (ANET)

Networking demand and infrastructure orders.

Oglethorpe Power Selects GE Vernova’s Technology for New Natural Gas Plant to Help Meet Georgia’s Growing Demand and Ensure Energy Security | GE Vernova News

7. GE Vernova (GEV)

Electricity generation and grid investment, important bottlenecks in the AI buildout.

My assessment of the week is:

Five conclusions stand out:

My preferred strategy would be to distinguish between a temporary market sell-off and a permanent deterioration in a company's business fundamentals.

I would not chase Friday's rebound. I would monitor whether the market can establish a sustained recovery, while looking for companies whose earnings, free cash flow and balance sheets justify their valuations.

For transparency, these are the most useful underlying sources for this edition:

Data note: Market figures reflect November 6 closing prices. Some individual-stock weekly performance figures come from secondary market-price aggregations.

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Investing in securities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal; always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.