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The IPO market is reopening, with several mega-cap technology companies preparing to go public.

Hey Compounders,

After several years of a largely dormant IPO market, the window appears to be reopening in a meaningful way.

Over the past month, two names have emerged at the center of investor attention: SpaceX and Anthropic. If current reports prove accurate, both companies could be headed toward public listings at valuations that would rank among the largest in market history. More importantly, their debuts may signal the beginning of a new cycle for growth investors, particularly in artificial intelligence and next-generation technology.

The company drawing the most immediate attention is SpaceX. Reports suggest Elon Musk's aerospace giant is preparing for a public debut at a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, with an offering that could raise as much as $75 billion. To put that into perspective, Saudi Aramco's record-setting IPO in 2019 raised $29.4 billion. A SpaceX offering of this magnitude would not simply break records—it would redefine them.

Interestingly, however, Wall Street's focus has already begun shifting beyond the IPO itself. The conversation increasingly revolves around what a public SpaceX could enable, particularly the possibility of a future combination between SpaceX and Tesla.

While such a transaction may sound speculative, there are structural reasons investors are taking the idea seriously. A merger between Tesla and SpaceX has always faced a significant hurdle: one company was public while the other remained private. A successful SpaceX IPO changes that dynamic overnight by giving SpaceX a publicly traded acquisition currency that could theoretically be used in a stock-for-stock transaction.

The speculation has gained further momentum because Musk's businesses have become increasingly intertwined. Earlier this year, xAI was reportedly folded into the broader Musk ecosystem, creating a blueprint for consolidation. Tesla has invested capital into Musk's AI initiatives, while SpaceX and Tesla continue collaborating on infrastructure projects. The two companies are also connected through major purchases and shared investments in AI, energy, robotics, and computing infrastructure.

Supporters of a potential merger argue that the strategic logic is compelling. Tesla currently carries a market capitalization of roughly $1.65 trillion, while SpaceX is targeting a valuation near $1.75 trillion. Together, the combined entity would approach $3.4 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world.

The bullish thesis centers on vertical integration. Tesla contributes manufacturing expertise, battery technology, autonomous driving systems, and robotics initiatives such as Optimus. SpaceX brings launch capabilities, Starlink's satellite network, space infrastructure, and potentially future space-based computing assets. Combined, investors would gain exposure to transportation, energy, AI, robotics, communications, and aerospace through a single company.

Not everyone is convinced, however. While some analysts have placed the probability of a merger as high as 80% to 90% over the next several years, prediction markets remain more cautious, with estimates closer to 50%. The skepticism is understandable. A transaction of this size would have no modern precedent and would require approval from boards, shareholders, and regulators. Determining a fair valuation framework alone would be a monumental challenge.

For now, the merger discussion remains secondary. The first test is whether SpaceX can successfully enter public markets and justify the ambitious valuation being discussed.

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While SpaceX dominates headlines, another development may ultimately prove just as significant.

On June 1st, Anthropic confidentially filed paperwork with the SEC, becoming the first major frontier AI company to formally begin the IPO process. The move positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI in what is increasingly becoming a race to public markets.

For investors, the timing is notable. Since the emergence of generative AI, much of the value creation has occurred within private companies that remain inaccessible to public shareholders. Anthropic's filing suggests that dynamic may soon begin to change.

The company's recent growth has been remarkable. Following its latest financing round, Anthropic was reportedly valued at approximately $965 billion, placing it within striking distance of the trillion-dollar threshold. Reports also indicate that the company has achieved an annualized revenue run rate approaching $47 billion, driven largely by enterprise adoption of its Claude AI platform.

Perhaps most importantly, Anthropic is reportedly approaching profitability. If confirmed in a future public prospectus, that would distinguish the company from many high-growth technology firms that continue prioritizing expansion over earnings. In an environment where investors are increasingly rewarding sustainable business models, profitability could become a major differentiator.

The broader implications extend beyond Anthropic itself. Both Amazon and Alphabet have invested heavily in the company and stand to benefit significantly from its success.

Amazon has invested approximately $13 billion in Anthropic since 2023, while Alphabet has committed up to $40 billion, including an initial $10 billion investment and additional capital tied to performance milestones. Beyond equity ownership, both companies provide critical infrastructure through Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud.

As Anthropic scales its AI operations, the demand for computing power, cloud infrastructure, and specialized AI chips should continue growing. As a result, investors seeking exposure to the AI ecosystem may find opportunities not only in AI developers themselves but also in the companies supplying the underlying infrastructure.

One of the more interesting beneficiaries of the SpaceX excitement has been the recently launched Tema Space Innovators ETF (NYSE: NASA).

The fund debuted on March 31st and has attracted attention because it offers something few public vehicles can: direct exposure to SpaceX before its anticipated public listing.

Approximately 10% of the portfolio is allocated to SpaceX through a special-purpose vehicle structure. The remainder of the fund consists of companies operating across the broader space economy, including satellite communications, launch services, earth observation, and space infrastructure.

Investors have taken notice. Shares of the ETF rose roughly 17% within weeks of launch as speculation surrounding the SpaceX IPO intensified.

The appeal extends beyond the direct SpaceX position. If SpaceX debuts at a valuation near $1.75 trillion, the ripple effects could spread throughout the entire sector. Major indices may need to rebalance, analysts will publish valuation comparisons, and institutional investors seeking related opportunities will likely examine companies operating in adjacent markets.

That dynamic could benefit many of the holdings already present within the NASA portfolio.

Of course, the risks should not be ignored. At a valuation approaching 95 times trailing revenue, SpaceX would enter public markets with extraordinarily high expectations. If investor demand falls short or the IPO prices below expectations, sentiment could reverse quickly. Given NASA's concentrated exposure, the fund would likely experience both the upside and downside associated with that outcome.

Stepping back, the broader story is not simply about SpaceX or Anthropic.

It is about the return of public market access to some of the world's most important growth companies.

For much of the past decade, investors watched as value creation increasingly occurred in private markets. Companies stayed private longer, raised enormous amounts of venture capital, and delayed public listings well beyond what was historically typical.

That trend may finally be changing.

A $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO, a potential $965 billion Anthropic listing, and an eventual OpenAI filing would represent one of the most significant waves of technology offerings in modern market history.

Valuations remain a critical question, and investors should be careful not to confuse great businesses with great investments. Nevertheless, after years of limited opportunities, public market investors may soon have access to a new generation of transformative companies.

If these listings move forward, the next twelve months could become one of the most consequential periods for IPO markets in decades.

And for long-term investors, it is a development worth watching closely.

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