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Capital Compounder
Jun 7, 2026
THE IPOs — SpaceX and Anthropic
THE IPOs — SpaceX and Anthropic
00:00
09:11
Transcript
0:00
Ten AI stocks to lead. The next decade AI isn't a tech trend. It's a full-blown multi-trillion-dollar race, and ten companies are already pulling ahead.
0:10
These are the innovators driving real revenue, attracting institutional attention, and positioning for massive growth. Get all ten tickers in the ten best AI stocks to own in twenty twenty-six free today. Download now.
0:25
Quote of the week: "The biggest fortunes are often made when private innovation becomes public ownership."
0:33
Key takeaways from this edition of the newsletter: the IPO market is reopening, with several mega-cap technology companies preparing to go public. SpaceX's one dollars seventy-five T IPO could be the largest in history.
0:47
A SpaceX IPO makes a Tesla merger more realistic. Anthropic's filing officially starts the AI IPO race. Amazon, Alphabet, and space stocks could be major beneficiaries. The IPOs: SpaceX and Anthropic. Hey, compounders.
1:04
After several years of a largely dormant IPO market, the window appears to be reopening in a meaningful way. Over the past month, two names have emerged at the center of investor attention, SpaceX and Anthropic.
1:18
If current reports prove accurate, both companies could be headed toward public listings at valuations that would rank among the largest in market history.
1:27
More importantly, their debuts may signal the beginning of a new cycle for growth investors, particularly in artificial intelligence and next-generation technology.
1:37
The company drawing the most immediate attention is SpaceX.
1:41
Reports suggest Elon Musk's aerospace giant is preparing for a public debut at a valuation of approximately one dollars seventy-five trillion dollars with an offering that could raise as much as seventy-five billion dollars.
1:54
To put that into perspective, Saudi Aramco's record-setting IPO in twenty nineteen raised twenty-nine four billion dollars. A SpaceX offering of this magnitude would not simply break records, it would redefine them.
2:08
Interestingly, however, Wall Street's focus has already begun shifting beyond the IPO itself.
2:15
The conversation increasingly revolves around what a public SpaceX could enable, particularly the possibility of a future combination between SpaceX and Tesla.
2:25
While such a transaction may sound speculative, there are structural reasons investors are taking the idea seriously. A merger between Tesla and SpaceX has always faced a significant hurdle.
2:38
One company was public while the other remained private.
2:41
A successful SpaceX IPO changes that dynamic overnight by giving SpaceX a publicly traded acquisition currency that could theoretically be used in a stock-for-stock transaction.
2:53
The speculation has gained further momentum because Musk's businesses have become increasingly intertwined.
3:00
Earlier this year, xAI was reportedly folded into the broader Musk ecosystem, creating a blueprint for consolidation. Tesla has invested capital into Musk's AI initiatives.
3:12
While SpaceX and Tesla continue collaborating on infrastructure projects, the two companies are also connected through major purchases and shared investments in AI, energy, robotics, and computing infrastructure.
3:26
Supporters of a potential merger argue that the strategic logic is compelling.
3:31
Tesla currently carries a market capitalization of roughly one dollars sixty-five trillion dollars, while SpaceX is targeting a valuation near one dollar seventy-five trillion dollars.
3:42
Together, the combined entity would approach three dollars four trillion dollars, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. The bullish thesis centers on vertical integration.
3:53
Tesla contributes manufacturing expertise, battery technology, autonomous driving systems, and robotics initiatives such as Optimus.
4:02
SpaceX brings launch capabilities, Starlink satellite network, space infrastructure, and potentially future space-based computing assets.
4:11
Combined, investors would gain exposure to transportation, energy, AI, robotics, communications, and aerospace through a single company. Not everyone is convinced, however.
4:23
While some analysts have placed the probability of a merger as high as eighty percent to ninety percent over the next several years, prediction markets remain more cautious, with estimates closer to fifty percent.
4:36
The skepticism is understandable. A transaction of this size would have no modern precedent and would require approval from boards, shareholders, and regulators.
4:46
Determining a fair valuation framework alone would be a monumental challenge. For now, the merger discussion remains secondary.
4:55
The first test is whether SpaceX can successfully enter public markets and justify the ambitious valuation being discussed. Stop chasing docs. Automate them. Docs piling up faster than you can write them? Same.
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5:36
Run- As a result, investors seeking exposure to the AI ecosystem may find opportunities not only in AI developers themselves, but also in the companies supplying the underlying infrastructure.
5:49
A smaller ETF position for the SpaceX wave. One of the more interesting beneficiaries of the SpaceX excitement has been the recently launched Tema Space Innovators ETF, NYSE NASA.
6:01
The fund debuted on March thirty-first and has attracted attention because it offers something few public vehicles canDirect exposure to SpaceX before its anticipated public listing.
6:13
Approximately ten percent of the portfolio is allocated to SpaceX through a special purpose vehicle structure.
6:20
The remainder of the fund consists of companies operating across the broader space economy, including satellite communications, launch services, Earth observation, and space infrastructure. Investors have taken notice.
6:35
Shares of the ETF rose roughly seventeen percent within weeks of launch as speculation surrounding the SpaceX IPO intensified. The appeal extends beyond the direct SpaceX position.
6:47
If SpaceX debuts at a valuation near one dollars seventy five trillion, the ripple effects could spread throughout the entire sector.
6:55
Major indices may need to rebalance, analysts will publish valuation comparisons, and institutional investors seeking related opportunities will likely examine companies operating in adjacent markets.
7:08
That dynamic could benefit many of the holdings already present within the NASA portfolio. Of course, the risks should not be ignored.
7:17
At a valuation approaching ninety-five times trailing revenue, SpaceX would enter public markets with extraordinarily high expectations.
7:26
If investor demand falls short or the IPO prices below expectations, sentiment could reverse quickly.
7:33
Given NASA's concentrated exposure, the fund would likely experience both the upside and downside associated with that outcome. The bigger picture stepping back, the broader story is not simply about SpaceX or Anthropic.
7:48
It is about the return of public market access to some of the world's most important growth companies. For much of the past decade, investors watched as value creation increasingly occurred in private markets.
8:01
Companies stayed private longer, raised enormous amounts of venture capital, and delayed public listings well beyond what was historically typical. That trend may finally be changing.
8:13
A one seventy-five trillion dollars SpaceX IPO, a potential nine hundred and sixty-five billion dollar Anthropic listing, and an eventual OpenAI filing would represent one of the most significant waves of technology offerings in modern market history.
8:29
Valuations remain a critical question, and investors should be careful not to confuse great businesses with great investments.
8:37
Nevertheless, after years of limited opportunities, public market investors may soon have access to a new generation of transformative companies.
8:47
If these listings move forward, the next twelve months could become one of the most consequential periods for IPO markets in decades. And for long-term investors, it is a development worth watching closely.
9:00
Like this newsletter? You might be interested in reading our previous newsletter as well. Additional reading. Until next week, keep compounding. Capital Compounder
Capital Compounders
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