NASDAQ Tech 100 Plunges: Should you buy the Dip?

Wispr Flow turns your voice into clean, professional text you can send the moment you stop talking. Not rough transcription you have to clean up. Actual polished text — ready for email, Slack, or any app.

Speak the way you think. Go on tangents. Change your mind mid-sentence. Flow strips the filler, fixes the grammar, and gives you text that reads like you spent five minutes writing it.

89% of messages sent with zero edits. Millions of professionals use Flow daily, including teams at OpenAI, Vercel, and Clay. Works on Mac, Windows, and iPhone.

Start flowing free

Last week we highlighted the critical technical levels on the Nasdaq Tech 100 and argued that the downside risk outweighed the upside. That bearish scenario has now unfolded, with the index breaking below key support and confirming a short-term deterioration in market structure.

Read last weeks article here

The Nasdaq Tech 100 has now slipped below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, signalling a loss of short-term momentum. These moving averages are beginning to roll over, and unless the index can reclaim them quickly, they are likely to act as dynamic resistance during any relief rally. Technical analysts are watching the 50-day moving average closely because sustained trading below it often signals a transition from momentum-driven buying to a corrective phase.

Momentum indicators have also weakened significantly.

The MACD has produced a bearish crossover below its signal line and continues to trend lower, indicating that downside momentum remains dominant. At the same time, the histogram continues to expand in negative territory, suggesting sellers still have control rather than merely taking profits.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from overbought conditions into the low-40s and is approaching the 30 level that traditionally defines oversold territory. While this increases the probability of a short-term rebound, oversold markets can remain oversold during strong corrections. Confirmation from price action is therefore more important than the RSI reading alone.

Volume has also increased during down sessions, indicating institutional selling rather than retail-driven volatility.

The immediate focus is on whether buyers can defend the current support region.

Bullish case

Bearish case

This week's trading will likely be driven more by macroeconomic events than technicals alone.

Which model leads the next benchmark? Which AI lab ships the next major breakthrough?

Kalshi lets you trade on real-world AI and technology events as the industry moves. If you follow launches, model updates, and benchmarks closely, put that knowledge to work.

Trade $25, Get Up to $500

_{Bonus credit varies from $15 to $500. Terms apply.}

The Federal Reserve's policy announcement is the biggest event of the week. Markets are focused not only on the rate decision itself but also on Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance regarding inflation and the path of monetary policy. Current pricing reflects uncertainty around whether policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, making both the statement and press conference potential volatility catalysts.

Although hostilities between the United States and Iran have recently eased, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Any renewed escalation could quickly push crude oil prices higher through concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, continued diplomatic progress has already helped oil prices retreat sharply from recent highs, easing some inflation pressure.

Oil remains one of the most important macro variables for technology stocks.

Higher crude prices increase transportation and production costs across the economy, feeding into inflation expectations and potentially delaying monetary easing. That would typically pressure long-duration growth stocks such as large-cap technology.

However, the recent decline in oil prices following the easing of Middle East tensions has provided some relief for inflation expectations and Treasury yields, offering a modest tailwind for equities.

Weakness in South Korea's KOSPI, driven largely by semiconductor stocks, has become another headwind for global technology sentiment. Because the semiconductor supply chain is deeply interconnected, persistent selling in Asian chipmakers can spill over into U.S. technology shares and weigh on the Nasdaq Tech 100.

Alongside the Fed, investors will closely monitor earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta. Beyond headline numbers, markets will focus on AI-related capital expenditure, cloud growth and management guidance. Strong results could help stabilize the index, while disappointing guidance may reinforce the recent technical breakdown.

The Nasdaq Tech 100 enters one of the most important weeks of the quarter with both technical and macro headwinds.

The technical picture has weakened following the break below key moving averages and the bearish MACD crossover. Momentum remains negative, but RSI is approaching levels where short-term relief rallies become increasingly likely.

Whether that bounce evolves into a sustainable recovery will depend largely on the Federal Reserve's messaging, the trajectory of oil prices, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and whether mega-cap technology companies can deliver earnings and forward guidance strong enough to restore investor confidence.

Until the index can reclaim its key moving averages with improving market breadth and strengthening momentum, rallies should be treated cautiously. The broader long-term uptrend has not yet been invalidated, but the burden of proof has shifted to the bulls after last week's technical breakdown.

Read more here

Subscribe to The AI Report, the free 5-minute daily AI brief for 400,000+ business leaders, and you’ll get 37 Claude prompts free in your welcome email. They’re organised by the 8 situations every manager faces. You get both: the newsletter and the prompts.

Subscribe & Get the Prompts

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Investing in securities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal; always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.